Important takeouts:
XRP’s NUPL metrics signal potential local tops and reflect historical no periodic inversions.
Institutional investors are being pulled back from XRP, with a monthly ETP outflow of $56.6 million.
Unless XRP breaks the important resistance, wedge pattern falls suggest a negative risk of 22-38%.
XRP (XRP) is rebounded by more than 40% from April 7th to June 4th from around $2.50. Still, the price is 37% below $3.40 in January 2025, raising concerns about XRP’s ability to rise.
Will XRP prices fall from their current levels in the coming days?
XRP ONCHAIN ​​Metric Signal Price Top
XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has entered the “Belief-Need” phase, a stage that frequently informs local tops.
Historically, the simple 30-day moving average for this zone coincides with a moment when most holders benefit, but lack the beliefs they hold through volatility.
In 2021, XRP hit this same green zone and then suddenly turned around from around $2, failing to infiltrate the true euphoria.
The current sentiment reflects a similar setup. If XRP can’t generate a large follow-through in the general rebound in the coming weeks, history suggests that pullbacks are likely.
XRP Investment Products Investors Remove Risk
According to Coinshares data, institutional demand for XRP investment products appears to be declining.
The XRP Exchange-Traded product (ETPS) recorded its largest weekly outflow of $28.2 million for the week ending May 30th, bringing the month’s outflow to $56.6 million.
Other top cap altcoins, such as Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and SUI (SUI), recorded net inflows of $321.4 million, $1.5 million and $2.2 million, respectively, indicating a decline in agency desire for XRP products.
XRP wedges show price crash of 22-38%
As of June 4th, XRP had undergone a pullback after testing the top trendlines of its common falling wedge pattern.
Previous pullbacks from the same resistance line resulted in a sharp revision, including a 45% decrease in March towards the lower trend line of wedges.
The fractal setup reduces the XRP odds to $1.78, falling 22% from current price levels, further aligned with the lower wedge trendline and the 50-week index moving average (EMA).
In the worst-case scenario, the XRP price could slip at $1.45 towards the vertex point of the wedge, which is over 38% from the current level.
Related: XRP price risks crashing at 20% to $1.70 – why here
Falling wedges are considered bullish inverted setups. Therefore, according to technical rules, a clear breakout above the top trendline of the pattern could send a price as high as the height of the wedge.
This means that the XRP’s upside target is expected to be damaged at around $3.66 (a new record high), exceeding the current top trend line resistance by $2.23.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
