A sudden contraction of US imports could ripple through consumer markets and could affect Bitcoin’s price action.
Retailers stock less than 2 months
Executive Director Jean Seloka flagged her forecast a 35% decline in container volume at the Port of Los Angeles. This indicates an important early warning.
As reported in an April 25 interview with Bloomberg, Celoka noted that around 50,000 feet of comparable units will disappear from inbound flow next week as retailers suspend orders in response to tariff pressures.
This sudden disruption has already tightened the supply chain further in preparation for tariff fallout, following major transport lines halting major international services. Celoka flagged the support industry for the impact of the support chain.
“So truckers are carrying four or five containers today. Next week she will probably carry two or three containers.
Dock workers are no longer planning on looking at overtime and double shifts. They will probably work less than traditional work week. ”
When questioned whether trade contracts would limit shortages, Seroka responded with a timeline of what would happen.
“About two weeks (…) when the ships are relocated around these major ports, loading all these vessels, then sprinting through the Pacific Ocean for another two weeks.
This is important. Now we’re talking about spring and summer fashion, so we’re at the heart of this.
Seroka continued,
“Retailers say they have regular stocks in the country for about five to seven weeks.
Then, if it continues well beyond this, you start to see a spot shortage. ”
One and an indefinite suspension of Yang Ming’s PN4 Asia-US West Coast route will remove weekly capacity between 12,000 and 14,000 TEUs. Complementing this, Hapag-Lolyd listed structural blank sails later in the year, showing a transition from temporary adjustments to long-term reductions.
These cuts suggest that cushion retailers built on weather tariff hikes could soon dissipate, along with the start of erosion of front-loaded inventory.
Current Positive Data for US Imports
However, until March, container throughput remained rising, with Los Angeles processing 778,406 TEUs (+5.2% year-on-year) and Long Beach recorded a record 2.5 million TEUs in the first quarter (+27.4% year-on-year).
Furthermore, current data may be interpreted as positive for now.
The supply flow is still robust. Loaded imports TEUs are rising in LA and Long Beach until March. Some blank sales notifications are concentrated on a single Premier Allans Loop (PN4) and a few AD Hook voyages.
Volume reduction is patchy and not systematic. Hapag -Lloyd, Maersk, Cosco/Oocl, Evergreen and Zim have not announced the Asian US blank for May. In other words, about 75% of the weekly slot pool is not mentioned.
The inventory is comfortable. The nationwide 1.35 inventory/sales ratio is far from the low of 1.21 ahead of the 2021 vacant episode, and is roughly the same as the pre-2019 level.
However, the February business inventory-sales ratio suggests a decline in buffer stock, increasing the prospects for visible shelf gaps as weak imports continue in the summer.
Front-loaded stock has hidden the tariff storm that is currently reaching its delivery schedule. The entire cross-sectional loop was offline, with LA’s Chief Harbor Master warning of a third volume plunge, which kicked off a six-week clock against potential retail stockouts.
Whether or not the consumer feels it depends on the length of the tariff and what a number of navigational personnel attack from the chart.
The impact of supply shock on Bitcoin
The relationship between Bitcoin and the macroeconomic shock complicates expectations for digital assets during a supply-driven inflation scenario.
At the time of Seroca’s warning, Bitcoin had been trading nearly $97,600 after a February retracement linked to CPI data at a higher than expected temperature. But Bitcoin fell below $95,000 after the ongoing trade war rhetoric over the weekend.
A study published via SSRN in early 2025 found Bitcoin’s price elasticity compared to global stocks, indicating a close co-integration with the MSCI World Index. Stock shock adjustments usually occur within a year, suggesting that Bitcoin’s actions are still solidly risk-on.
This context presents competing pressure on Bitcoin. On the one hand, destruction of supply chains and shortages due to tariffs can rekindle the fear of inflation. Traditional stories promote Bitcoin as a hedge against currency collapse and consumer price volatility, potentially drawing capital for shelter from Fiat erosion.
However, actual trading patterns complicate this view.
Bitcoin’s inflation hedge appeal is a proven context-specific. Sporadic alignment of digital assets with stocks means that at moments of acute growth concern, such as a slowdown in tariff-driven retail, we may instead face sales pressure.
Monetary policy remains a wild card. If tariff-related weaknesses exacerbate economic headwinds, Federal Reserve policymakers can reconsider the easing earlier than expected. Historically, liquidity expansions have supported the price of Bitcoin.
Previous cycles, including the 2019 rate reduction sequence, preceded a sudden cryptocurrency. So, while immediate supply chain friction refers to risk aversion, the pivot can inject bullish momentum no matter what.
Also, a decrease in dollar trust could lead to increased reliability in Bitcoin as a hedge alongside gold. Now, when US bonds are sold, Bitcoin feels weak, and investors look for alternatives outside the traditional financial system.
Since early April, US 10-year memos have fallen by 2%, while Bitcoin has risen 22%.
As the six-week timeline from container destruction to retail shelves narrows, investors need to closely monitor shipping data, CPI releases, and the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks.
The next chapter of the Bitcoin inflation story has not yet been written. Still, the conflict of supply chain tension and macro uncertainty will quickly test whether it acts as a digital shelter or remains connected to traditional risk conditions.
