Bitcoin hit a record weekly close near $107K before plunging to $102K. Analysts debate whether it’s a breakout or a fakeout as $116K and macro triggers loom.
Bitcoin Eyes $116K After Record Weekly Close — Breakout or Fakeout?
Bitcoin (BTC) began the new trading week with high drama — registering its highest weekly close in history near $106,500, only to retrace sharply to $102,000. Now hovering around $103,725, BTC is keeping traders on edge amid predictions of a potential rally toward $116,000 or another liquidity trap.
BTC Price Rollercoaster: From Highs to Doubt
On May 18, Bitcoin surged to multimonth highs near $107,000, only to reverse course within hours. The move triggered $673 million in liquidations, wiping out overleveraged positions and unsettling both bulls and bears. Analysts described the movement as a “classic liquidity grab” — shaking out short traders before reversing to trap longs.
“Classic liquidity trap above the recent high and reversal downwards,” said analyst Michaël van de Poppe. He expects a similar move around $100K before any meaningful breakout.
Key Technical Zones and Market Signals
BTC’s current range remains tight, with $107,500 acting as strong resistance and $102,000 attracting fresh bids, according to CoinGlass. High-timeframe indicators remain bullish, with the 50-week EMA holding strong and the weekly close above Fibonacci extension levels suggesting strength.
“Bulls have one job: defend this range,” noted Swissblock Technologies.
Meanwhile, volume delta analysis from CryptoQuant shows rising spot buy volume on Binance, a positive sign for long-term strength — though historically, sharp volume spikes can also hint at local tops.
Macro Triggers: Trade Wars and Fed Policy
A lack of major U.S. economic data this week shifts focus to geopolitical trade developments. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s stance on enacting tariffs and the recent U.S. credit downgrade by Moody’s may inject volatility into risk assets — crypto included.
“As the US Dollar weakens and uncertainty rises, Bitcoin and Gold are thriving. Instability is Bitcoin’s best friend,” wrote The Kobeissi Letter.
Still, Fed interest rate cuts are not expected before September, with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing only a 12% chance of a cut in June.
Bitcoin and Stocks: Still Correlated?
Recent volatility has reopened debate on crypto’s correlation with equities. While short-term data from RedStone Oracles suggests weak correlation, longer-term views show Bitcoin tracking major indices like the S&P 500.
“It was more enjoyable when BTC traded independently,” one trader remarked, frustrated by Bitcoin’s weekend mirroring of stock market futures.
Outlook: Fakeout or Breakout?
As traders recalibrate, eyes remain on the $100K support zone and a potential rally toward $116K. Whether BTC resumes its climb or revisits lower levels will depend on a complex mix of technical indicators, macro triggers, and market sentiment.
With volatility back on the table, this week may determine whether Bitcoin truly enters price discovery mode — or if $107K was just a well-executed fakeout.
