Important takeouts:
Analysts predict that low VIX, particularly below 18, represents a risk-on market, which could raise Bitcoin prices to $135,000 within the next 100 days.
Stablecoin’s market capitalization reaches $220 billion, driving Crypto’s liquidity and Bitcoin’s bullish price action.
Negative Bitcoin funding rates suggest a possible short is at $100,000.
Bitcoin Network Economist Timothy Peterson has maintained optimism for 2025, increasing the likelihood that Bitcoin (BTC) will hit a new high in 100 days.
In an analysis that links BTC price action to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), an indicator that measures market volatility expectations over the course of 30 days – analysts noted that the VIX index has dropped from 55 to 25 over the past 50 trading days. A VIX score below 18 implies a “risk-on” environment that favors assets like Bitcoin.
With 95% tracking accuracy, Peterson’s model predicted a $135,000 target within the next 100 days if the VIX remains low. This is consistent with Bitcoin’s sensitivity to market sentiment, as low VIX reduces uncertainty and encourages investment in high-risk assets.
Speaking about the volatility of Bitcoin by Julian Timer, the global macro director of Fidelity, I compared the nature of Bitcoin to “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hid.” Timmer believed that Bitcoin distinguished from gold from the ability to act both as a value store (Dr. Jekyll) and as a speculative asset (Mr. Hyde). Timmer emphasized the dynamics between Bitcoin and Global Money Supply, saying,
“If the M2 is growing and the stock market is rallying, then Bitcoin is competing in the race as both attributes are working. But if the M2 is growing and the stocks are revised, then not that much.”
This highlights Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, making its performance less predictable than gold.
Related: Crypto “decoupling” stories end when stocks follow a Bitcoin rally
Stablecoin’s market capitalization is a record $220 billion
Cryptoquant data highlighted that Stablecoin’s market capitalization reached a record $220 billion, indicating a surge in liquidity in the crypto market. This marks the exit of Bitcoin from the bearish stage as capital flows return, and with stubcoin representing crypto liquidity, the new BTC High could be a result in the coming weeks.
While BTC continues to be uptrend, the low frame (LTF) chart reveals changes in market dynamics. The funding rate for BTC futures has once again been negative, indicating an increase in short positions as traders bet on the rally.
The 4-hour chart funding rate reached the most negative levels in 2025, indicating that short liquidity is significantly exceeding long liquidity. This creates potential short aperture conditions.
This imbalance could drive BTC towards the $100,000 level. Cointelegraph noted that over $3 billion is at risk of liquidation of the short side.
Related: Bitcoin Hodlers are unrealized profits from Bitcoin near 350%, with risk of selling at $10,000 risk
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
