Important takeaways:
Bitcoin dropped $103,500 as traders reduced risk ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision.
Technical data shows that Bitcoin prices bounce between $102,000 and $104,000.
Onchain data shows that medium-term holders have achieved significant returns over the past month.
Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped to $103,300 after traders began reducing risk ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conference, ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conference, ahead of the following interest rate decisions, which will be released on Wednesday. The corrections approach bearish weekly candles and suggest a reversal of the trend, but geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israeli-Iran conflict, increase risk-off sentiment.
According to Bitcoin Vector, a market pulse aggregator backed by SwissBlock, the decline is more than just macro-driven. It aligns along with seasonal debilitating and growing on-chain networks, indicating the calmness of spot demand. Over $434 million in BTC futures have been liquidated on the past day, and the current movement is largely leveraged-driven, emphasizing that traders are choosing attention rather than fresh exposure.
Nevertheless, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index is a metric comparing BTC prices for Coinbase and Binance, which remained positive for most of June, indicating a stable spot demand from US investors. However, this demand has a limited impact on prices due to wider market attention.
Further pressure was put on from profitable activities between the “midcycle holder” (6-12 months), which achieved a profit of $904 million on Monday, according to GlassNode. This cohort accounted for 83% of the total realized profit. This is a notable shift from long-term or 12-month owners who previously led profit realization. This shift suggests a rotation of market dynamics, with more reactive participants gaining benefits at recent highs.
Still, long-term investors’ actions offer optimistic outlook. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that long-term holders (LTHS) are still accused of large spending, a historically bullish pattern.
Healthy MVRV Z-score – indicates that BTC remains fundamentally underestimated. Similar setups of past cycles precede 18-25% meetings within six weeks. This means a potential price target of $130,000 by the end of the second quarter.
Related: Bitcoin threatens $104,000 “ragpur” as traders still say big moves
Bitcoin can bottom out for $102,000. Here’s why
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin could be nearing a short-term bottom of $102,000 to $104,000, where dense liquidity pockets and historical order blocks intersect.
Another reason for the potential average return of around $102,000 is the Bollinger Band. As shown on the chart, the midband, or around $106,000 proximity, with around $106,000 serving as a dynamic resistor, is expected to result in a faster technical response from $102,000.
The Bollinger band is also compressed, signalling an imminent volatility spike, but the middle band, close to $106,000, acts as a dynamic resistance. A successful landfill and closure above $106,748 could test a bullish average return to $112,000. Conversely, a clean break below $100,000 could disable the setup and target $98,000.
Data from Alphractal frames $98,300 as key support for short-term holders (STHs) to remain profitable. Breaking this threshold can cause the structure to tilt towards a deeper correction. As Alphractal pointed out:
“As long as Bitcoin exceeds the realised price of STH, the market can be considered bullish. The scenario will only change if BTC actively loses its $98,000 level.
Related: Looking at these Bitcoin price levels ahead of Federal Reserve Powell’s speech
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk, and readers must do their research when making decisions.
